The Centre of our political landscape is very quickly becoming 'No [Wo]man's Land'

It is never a good idea to fight a battle on two fronts. The moment that you think you are making progress on one battle front you find yourself under attack from an unexpected direction before any gains made can be consolidated. This is, essentially, the predicament that the Prime Minister finds herself in; fighting losing battles across multiple fronts with troop morale plummeting and ammunition running low. The moments things start looking up in one direction, heavy losses are sustained on another. The net result? Well, let's just say it is something akin to watching a car accident in slow motion...

Now while it would be easy to discuss Gillard's battles as being based purely in policy, I think that actually detracts from the true basis of these on-going - and damaging - conflicts. These are battles of ideology and, as such, run far deeper than any mere passing policy debate. The Prime Minister, who has changed her colours (for political convenience...) from socialist red to a nice centralist beige, is now suffering from an identity crises, which is actually symptomatic of the broader ALP. The majority of the political battle occurs in the Centre which, from a purely political/vote grabbing perspective, makes perfect sense; go where you can get the most votes. There will always be rusted on ALP and Liberal Party supports, so why waste your time with them when you can pander to the needs and wants of all those moderates out there?

This 'shift to the Centre' has been the dominate feature of contemporary politics. While it is difficult to pinpoint when this move began, I would argue it was started by Keating (in an attempt to differentiate himself from the far more ideological Hawke) and finally mastered by Howard, with the so-called 'Howard Battlers' being the prime example of Centralist politics. While this 'Go Centre' attitude is now key to winning elections, it has created the strange circumstance where the major parties are, with each following year, becoming harder and harder to differentiate. No longer do we have the grand ideological battles over contrasting social paradigms. Instead, we now have minor skirmishes over slight disagreements in policy (case in point being Kevin Rudd's 'me too'/'Howard-lite' vote winning strategy at the 2007 election). And it is this decade’s long battle for control of the Centre that is, ironically, playing the biggest role in destabilising the Prime Minister.

The electorate does not understand what, if anything, Julia Gillard stands for. We all know that she comes from Labor's extreme Left, that she is a member of the Fabian Society, and that her views and attitudes are very closely aligned to the party's ideological past. However, following her ascension, Gillard suddenly wanted us all to believe that she had seen the light and miraculously converted to the Centralist belief system, as is customary of all federal party leaders. In her rush to the middle ground Gillard unwittingly made a huge tactical error on two fronts. She is battling an ideologue from the Right in Tony Abbott. The electorate knows what Abbott stands for and he has stuck to - and fought for - his political beliefs. In this respect he is mirroring John Howard's political conviction, which in the current environment is a huge plus; while you may not like his views, you have to respect the man for being brave enough to fight for his beliefs. Gillard, on the other hand, is viewed as a sell-out; betraying her roots and core values for pure political gain.

Big mistake, Julia...

The second front that this ideological identity crises opens up for Gillard, and the ALP as a whole, is that their lurch to the Centre has left them vulnerable to attack from behind, namely from the Greens. In a sense Labor has tried to be too many things for too many voters, and have lost their claim to being the dominate progressive party of the Left. By going into partnership with the Greens (and essentially elevating them to equal standing with Labor) Gillard has unknowingly anointed them as the ALP's successor. Before Gillard realised what was going on, she has found herself being held hostage by the new Green Labor. Now, any progressive social policy that Gillard embarks on will be viewed as Greens’ policy which they are bullying Labor into enacting (given that they currently hold the balance of power). The Greens will get the credit and Gillard will look weak and at the mercy of the increasingly smug Bob Brown.

Gillard and Labor's rush to the Centre has diluted their ability to lay claim to their traditional base, largely due to Gillard's deal with the Greens. Disillusioned, the voting public is looking to the ideologically true Liberals, whose core views of lower taxation, small government and support for small business are now strongly resonating with the electorate who are searching for a strong party to stand up for their interests. In a sense, by staying Right, Abbot is luring voters from the Centre, while the Greens are leeching votes from the disenfranchised on Labor's Left. The only losers here are Labor and Gillard. Why? Well the simple reason is that they have abandoned their beliefs in an increasingly vain attempt to cling to power. Forget policy failures, Labor's biggest problem at the moment is that it is pinned down in the Centre of the political battlefield and sustaining heavy fire from both the Right and the Left. With nowhere to hide Gillard and her government are being exposed as shallow, incompetent and politically bankrupt. How long Gillard can survive is anyone’s guess...