The Abbott Strategy: Election winning or doomed to fail?

I would like to preface this piece by stating up-front that there are times when I find it difficult to like Tony Abbott. Now do not get me wrong, I think that he is a very skilled, talented politician... but still there are days where I just have to shake my head, wondering why Tony just doesn't keep his mouth shut. Thankfully, those days are becoming fewer and farer between, which is a testament to the hard work that Abbott has put into controlling the inner larrikin that so often brakes free, making silly comments that are run to death by the liberal media. Tony Abbott has come a long way, developed as a leader and put his personal stamp on the party, which was incredibly important given the enormous shadow that the ghost of John Howard continues to project over parliament. Abbott took over the 'unelectable' Coalition and came within a hairs breadth of snatching victory in 2010... but the question remains: for all of the development and progress that Abbott has made, is he Prime Minister material? Can he convince the Australian public that he is the man for the top job? Well Abbott and the Liberal Party strategists would have to like their chances. It could be argued that this is because Gillard and Labor are doing everything wrong - spectacularly wrong! - but that does diminish the hard work and thought that has gone into the 'Abbott Strategy'; a cunning ploy that might just pull the Lodge from beneath the PM's feet...

What I admire most about Tony Abbott is that he is always out there doing something. This isn't your standard baby kissing and talking to families in shopping centres about grocery prices - none of that for Action Man Abbott! - Tony is out there lifting things, driving assorted machinery, gutting fish; you name it Tony seems willing to give it a go. This juxtaposes nicely against Gillard, who is always portrayed as standing about with that fake look of concern, nodding and speaking condescendingly, all the while constantly touching people. This helps frame Tony as a man who can get things done, which is a difficult thing for a leader of the opposition to pull off. However there is more to this than just appearing to have the energy of a hyperactive three year old... you just need to look at where Tony is doing all of these things...


"I swam out and caught it myself..."

"He is just trying to con dumb Labor voters into thinking that he gives a toss about them, even though he doesn't!" Complained one of my Howard-hating contemporaries (for obvious reason we do not discuss politics often...). This speaks to the heart of the Abbott Strategy and exposes two key Labor weaknesses: Gillard and the current dominance of the Greens over the ALP. These two weaknesses are clearly articulate when we look at the Labor Party's supporter demographic. Who support the ALP? Well, they are likely to be men working blue colour jobs. Abbott positioning himself as a man's man who swims marathons, lifts things and is generally blokey, will resonate with the ALP's traditional demographic and make him a relatable figure. Now this is only at a personal/human level, not at a policy level. But if you can identify with the salesperson you are far more likely to buy their product...

The second component of the Abbott Strategy, highlighting the submissive nature of the ALP in the current Labor-Greens-Independent Coalition, is where the true genius of this strategy becomes evident. Traditional Labor voters do not like the Greens. Why? Because they are the trendy inner-city crowd that sip soy lattes and seek to close down the manufacturing and mining industries out of some misplaced middle-class guilt. In short, these are the people who want to put your traditional Labor voter out of a job. The ALP's traditional base has been ignored and sidelined in the current political landscape in favour of the Greens and their inner-city crowd; the problem is that Labor and Gillard have just expected that they will simply tow the party line and continue voting ALP. Not so! Gillard is in political no man's land; those on the Left are deserting her in favour of the more radical Greens while the moderates are looking increasingly as if they are going to join Team Abbott. This is why Tony has been doing the rounds in workplaces that require one to lift things and drive forklifts. The message is quite simple: "Gillard has abandoned you! Gillard is conspiring with the Greens to take away your jobs and push up the cost of living through her many taxes! Gillard is more interested in keeping Brown happy than saving your jobs! The only way you can stop her is to vote for me, which I am making more acceptable by showing you that I'm just a regular bloke! Look at me, I'm gutting a fish! I am one of you!"

This is, of course, not a new strategy. The last time it was used was by former Prime Minister (and soon to be current Prime Minister) Kevin Rudd with his 'Me Too!' approach to John Howard. Rudd was often referred to as 'Howard-Lite'; enough like John Howard that he could entice the moderates without leaving them feel anxious about voting Labor, but not too much like Howard that he would lose his base support. With Gillard trapped between the Greens and that Centre, the Abbott Strategy looks like a winner: pick up the disillusioned Labor base courtesy of the current divide in the fractured Left while maintaining the traditional support base. Ironically even if Gillard wanted to counter this manoeuvre, it would spell the end of her reign in the top job. She cannot govern without the Greens and, while she has them on-side, she cannot hope to recapture Labor's traditional base...

The Liberal Party strategists are a smart bunch and, if the polls continue, we will see a resounding Coalition victory soon. The two key questions that remain however are: will the next Coalition Government be able to undo all of the damage caused by the Gillard/Brown Freak-show Government and, more importantly, can Abbott keep his mouth shut long enough to make it to the Lodge?

I do like Tony, I really do... I just wish he would think before he talks...!