The Abbott Strategy: Election winning or doomed to fail?

I would like to preface this piece by stating up-front that there are times when I find it difficult to like Tony Abbott. Now do not get me wrong, I think that he is a very skilled, talented politician... but still there are days where I just have to shake my head, wondering why Tony just doesn't keep his mouth shut. Thankfully, those days are becoming fewer and farer between, which is a testament to the hard work that Abbott has put into controlling the inner larrikin that so often brakes free, making silly comments that are run to death by the liberal media. Tony Abbott has come a long way, developed as a leader and put his personal stamp on the party, which was incredibly important given the enormous shadow that the ghost of John Howard continues to project over parliament. Abbott took over the 'unelectable' Coalition and came within a hairs breadth of snatching victory in 2010... but the question remains: for all of the development and progress that Abbott has made, is he Prime Minister material? Can he convince the Australian public that he is the man for the top job? Well Abbott and the Liberal Party strategists would have to like their chances. It could be argued that this is because Gillard and Labor are doing everything wrong - spectacularly wrong! - but that does diminish the hard work and thought that has gone into the 'Abbott Strategy'; a cunning ploy that might just pull the Lodge from beneath the PM's feet...

What I admire most about Tony Abbott is that he is always out there doing something. This isn't your standard baby kissing and talking to families in shopping centres about grocery prices - none of that for Action Man Abbott! - Tony is out there lifting things, driving assorted machinery, gutting fish; you name it Tony seems willing to give it a go. This juxtaposes nicely against Gillard, who is always portrayed as standing about with that fake look of concern, nodding and speaking condescendingly, all the while constantly touching people. This helps frame Tony as a man who can get things done, which is a difficult thing for a leader of the opposition to pull off. However there is more to this than just appearing to have the energy of a hyperactive three year old... you just need to look at where Tony is doing all of these things...


"I swam out and caught it myself..."

"He is just trying to con dumb Labor voters into thinking that he gives a toss about them, even though he doesn't!" Complained one of my Howard-hating contemporaries (for obvious reason we do not discuss politics often...). This speaks to the heart of the Abbott Strategy and exposes two key Labor weaknesses: Gillard and the current dominance of the Greens over the ALP. These two weaknesses are clearly articulate when we look at the Labor Party's supporter demographic. Who support the ALP? Well, they are likely to be men working blue colour jobs. Abbott positioning himself as a man's man who swims marathons, lifts things and is generally blokey, will resonate with the ALP's traditional demographic and make him a relatable figure. Now this is only at a personal/human level, not at a policy level. But if you can identify with the salesperson you are far more likely to buy their product...

The second component of the Abbott Strategy, highlighting the submissive nature of the ALP in the current Labor-Greens-Independent Coalition, is where the true genius of this strategy becomes evident. Traditional Labor voters do not like the Greens. Why? Because they are the trendy inner-city crowd that sip soy lattes and seek to close down the manufacturing and mining industries out of some misplaced middle-class guilt. In short, these are the people who want to put your traditional Labor voter out of a job. The ALP's traditional base has been ignored and sidelined in the current political landscape in favour of the Greens and their inner-city crowd; the problem is that Labor and Gillard have just expected that they will simply tow the party line and continue voting ALP. Not so! Gillard is in political no man's land; those on the Left are deserting her in favour of the more radical Greens while the moderates are looking increasingly as if they are going to join Team Abbott. This is why Tony has been doing the rounds in workplaces that require one to lift things and drive forklifts. The message is quite simple: "Gillard has abandoned you! Gillard is conspiring with the Greens to take away your jobs and push up the cost of living through her many taxes! Gillard is more interested in keeping Brown happy than saving your jobs! The only way you can stop her is to vote for me, which I am making more acceptable by showing you that I'm just a regular bloke! Look at me, I'm gutting a fish! I am one of you!"

This is, of course, not a new strategy. The last time it was used was by former Prime Minister (and soon to be current Prime Minister) Kevin Rudd with his 'Me Too!' approach to John Howard. Rudd was often referred to as 'Howard-Lite'; enough like John Howard that he could entice the moderates without leaving them feel anxious about voting Labor, but not too much like Howard that he would lose his base support. With Gillard trapped between the Greens and that Centre, the Abbott Strategy looks like a winner: pick up the disillusioned Labor base courtesy of the current divide in the fractured Left while maintaining the traditional support base. Ironically even if Gillard wanted to counter this manoeuvre, it would spell the end of her reign in the top job. She cannot govern without the Greens and, while she has them on-side, she cannot hope to recapture Labor's traditional base...

The Liberal Party strategists are a smart bunch and, if the polls continue, we will see a resounding Coalition victory soon. The two key questions that remain however are: will the next Coalition Government be able to undo all of the damage caused by the Gillard/Brown Freak-show Government and, more importantly, can Abbott keep his mouth shut long enough to make it to the Lodge?

I do like Tony, I really do... I just wish he would think before he talks...!

Will he or won't he...?

No, I'm not talking about whether Tim Mathieson is going to pop the question and ask Julia to marry him, I'm talking about the other man in Julia's life; the one she was hoping to divorce and never see again. Yes, I'm talking about the Million Dollar Man himself, the narcissistic Kevin Rudd. I know that I have said this before, but given the recent rumblings in the Labor Party my prediction may soon be proved correct. Julia Gillard is on her last leg as Prime Minister; the only thing stopping her loyal comrades from immediately dispatching her is, quite frankly, there is no one to fill the position... except for Kevin.

The majority of the ALP despise K-Rudd, with many still blaming him for the damaging leaks that hampered the Party's re-election campaign within the first few weeks of election season last year. In addition to this many recall his tyrannical rein, a short era characterised by distrust, paranoia and a dictatorial, rather than consultative, approach to leadership. Rudd failed in almost all key indicators that predict successful leadership; but he was protected by his ultimate weapon: the opinion poll. While the polls were up, the Party would let him get away with blue murder, simply because, after being in the wilderness for so long, the members of the ALP could not quite believe their own resurrection. Finally, people liked them! The opinion polls became a drug that both Rudd and the ALP became addicted to, they allowed them to guide policy and decision making, which is a fatal error; shallow populism is never conducive with good government. A government must have a vision and, once they have a mandate, work to achieve it. Rudd lost all credibility when he jettisoned his Carbon policy, despite referring to Global Warming as the "greatest moral threat of our time". Rudd exposed himself as weak, and his Labor 'allies' were quick to turn on him once the polls started heading in the wrong direction.

"I'm coming for you Julia... at last I will have my revenge...!"

Gillard, ironically, is somewhat protected from the same fate as Rudd due to the nature in which she secured the top job. The Faceless Men know all too well the anger of the Australia people who saw what was done to Rudd as completely inappropriate and undemocratic. More ironically still, it is this situation which makes Rudd the only other alternative. The anger came about because Gillard was not a proven leader and got the top job by sliming her way into the top job by assassinating her leader. Rudd can do the same without the electoral backlash: he is a proven leader who some would say has more right to the job than Gillard.

With her popularity rate so low, the ALP needs to do something, but they are terrified of the only viable option. They know Rudd can only do better than Gillard, but they don't want him back; it would be a humiliating turn that would only fuel his smug ego and make him even more unbearable than before. Given that he was stabbed in the back by his own party, can you imagine Rudd's level of paranoia the next time around? Does anyone in the ALP seriously believe that he would be able to have a functioning relationship with Swan, the man who betrayed him to secure the Deputy PM spot? Rudd's return, while I believe it to be inevitable, will cause massive disruptions within the Party the likes of which I don't think we can fully predict. The simple fact of the matter is that Labor is broken and the longer they stay in power the more damaging it will be for both the Party and the Nation...

Gillard rushing home... but why?

Well, it could be that our [soon to be Former] Prime Minister has just had enough of New Zealand, which is entirely understandable (I joke, of course; the countryside is just spectacular... the people, on the other hand...). Perhaps Gillard is heading home early to congratulate Swan on the economy (that would be a short discussion...) or maybe Tim found himself unable to open a particularly stubborn pickle jar. Fanciful scenarios, to be sure, as the likely truth is that the rumblings in the Labor Party are coming to a head... more precisely the Labor Party is coming after Julia's head...

Could it be that Gillard has cut short her NZ trip because her sycophant lapdog Swan has over heard that a leadership spill is imminent, and quickly jumped on the phone, pleading his Dear Leader to hurry back? "Come home Julia... the Faceless Men are getting restless!" With even the most devote ALP supporters and former power brokers beginning to lose the faith, it is only a matter of time. I suggested late last week that Gillard would be lucky to see the end of the month but maybe she won't see the end of this week?


Rushing back to stop Rudd the Revolutionary...?

For the most part I am an optimist; I always try and see the best, regardless of the situation. That is why I have my fingers crossed, and hope that the ALP sees sense and does the right thing: dump Gillard and give the Australian people their democratic right to vote. Our country is suffering needlessly and we need an election now!

Julia Gillard: Lame Duck PM?

So it has come to this, a Newspoll so abysmally bad that it would make even the most annoyingly optimistic politician cringe. Julia Gillard's personal support has fallen to an embarrassingly low 23%. That means you would struggle to find one in five people who think that the leader of this great nation is doing a good job. The truly humiliating aspect of this is that this Newspoll is the sixth in a row where Tony Abbott has led the Prime Minister in the preferred PM stakes. That says more about Gillard than it does about Abbott, a man that even I struggle to support some days (don't get me wrong, I like Tony, it's just that he doesn't always make it easy...). Tony has jumped to 43%, his highest rating ever. Mr Abbott, in the off chance that you read this, keep up the good work and for God's sake keep your mouth shut!


Looks like the electorate is finally warming to the future Prime Minister...

While Gillard may be struggling to find the one in five people who think that she is doing a good job, Coalition pollsters could throw a rock out the window and hit a dozen people willing to send their vote to the Lib/Nationals, with Newspoll showing that the Coalition has a crushing 50% primary vote. That's right, you read correctly, 50%! At this rate the government would lose in the order of 40 seats and 9 ministers would be joining the unemployment line (like much of the rest of the country thanks to their economic ineptitude...).

With an almost endless list of policy mistake and bringing shame and humiliation on our fine country, all I can say is the sooner we get rid of this rabble the better. Gillard is on the ropes, and even Kevin is more appealing to voters, with 50% of those polled in the latest Newspoll wanting to see a return of the K-Rudd. All that is left is the inevitable decline; stop wasting our time Gillard: Election NOW!